Prime Minister Layton?

NDP trail Tories by just three points new poll finds
Kathryn Blaze Carlson
April 27, 2011 Jack Layton raises his cane at a campaign rally in Winnipeg, Manitoba (Fred Greenslade/Reuters)

Conservative leader Stephen Harper no longer enjoys a comfortable lead ahead of the surging NDP, as a new poll shows the left-leaning party swelling to within just a few points of the reigning Tories.

According to the latest Forum Research poll, Jack Layton’s party enjoys the support of 31% of those surveyed — only three points behind the governing Conservatives, who fell to 34% from the 36% support the party gleaned as of April 21. The Liberals, having been reduced to third place in a slew of recent polls, dwindled to 22% in this latest survey, while the Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at 6%.

If these numbers are reflected on polling day, the NDP could grow from 37 to 108 seats in the House of Commons, forming the official opposition in a Parliament that would host 137 Tory MPs, 60 Liberals, and just 3 Bloc representatives. The poll, based on a telephone survey of 3,150 randomly selected eligible voters across the country, was conducted on Tuesday.

“With the NDP continuing to gain steam from coast to coast, and both the Liberal and Conservative party support lagging, the key question now is whether the NDP have the ground troops to deliver their vote on election day,” Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said in a press release.

The poll shows the Tories losing considerable ground in the Atlantic provinces, where support has apparently slipped from 33% to 26% since April 21. There, NDP support rose 13 points to 35%. In La Belle Province, 40% of voters said they support the NDP, having usurped a small percentage of votes from both the Bloc and Liberal parties there.

The New Democrats orange tide is also sweeping Ontario, according to the poll, which showed the party rising six points to capture 26% support. The lion’s share of that gain came at the expense of the Tories, who slipped from 42% to 38% in the battleground province.

As the federal election campaign enters its final days, the NDP will be looking to ensure their momentum sticks — the party tends to shed support to the Grits in the final stretch, as voters flop to the party once known as the only camp that could conceivably defeat the Tories.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. The regional results are less accurate.

carlson@nationalpost.com